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Abstract In a rapidly changing environment, predicting changes in the growth and survival of local populations can inform conservation and management. Plastic responses vary as a result of genetic differentiation within and among species, so accurate rangewide predictions require characterization of genotype-specific reaction norms across the continuum of historic and future climate conditions comprising a species’ range. Natural hybrid zones can give rise to novel recombinant genotypes associated with high phenotypic variability, further increasing the variance of plastic responses within the ranges of the hybridizing species. Experiments that plant replicated genotypes across a range of environments can characterize genotype-specific reaction norms; identify genetic, geographic, and climatic factors affecting variation in climate responses; and make predictions of climate responses across complex genetic and geographic landscapes. The North American hybrid zone ofPopulus trichocarpaandP. balsamiferarepresents a natural system in which reaction norms are likely to vary with underlying genetic variation that has been shaped by climate, geography, and introgression. Here, we leverage a dataset containing 45 clonal genotypes of varying ancestry from this natural hybrid zone, planted across 17 replicated common garden experiments spanning a broad climatic range, including sites warmer than the natural species ranges. Growth and mortality were measured over two years, enabling us to model reaction norms for each genotype across these tested environments. Genomic variation associated with species ancestry and northern/southern regions significantly influenced growth across environments, with genotypic variation in reaction norms reflecting a trade-off between cold tolerance and growth. Using modeled reaction norms for each genotype, we predicted that genotypes with moreP. trichocarpaancestry may gain an advantage under warmer climates. Spatial shifts of the hybrid zone could facilitate the spread of beneficial alleles into novel climates. These results highlight that genotypic variation in responses to temperature will have landscape-level effects. 

Abstract Changes in telomere length are increasingly used to indicate species' response to environmental stress across diverse taxa. Despite this broad use, few studies have explored telomere length in plants. Thus, evaluation of new approaches for measuring telomeres in plants is needed. Rapid advances in sequencing approaches and bioinformatic tools now allow estimation of telomere content from whole‐genome sequencing (WGS) data, a proxy for telomere length. While telomere content has been quantified extensively using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and WGS in humans, no study to date has compared the effectiveness of WGS in estimating telomere length in plants relative to qPCR approaches. In this study, we use 100Populusclones re‐sequenced using short‐read Illumina sequencing to quantify telomere length comparing three different bioinformatic approaches (Computel, K‐seek and TRIP) in addition to qPCR. Overall, telomere length estimates varied across different bioinformatic approaches, but were highly correlated across methods for individual genotypes. A positive correlation was observed between WGS estimates and qPCR, however, Computel estimates exhibited the greatest correlation. Computel incorporates genome coverage into telomere length calculations, suggesting that genome coverage is likely important to telomere length quantification when using WGS data. Overall, telomere estimates from WGS provided greater precision and accuracy of telomere length estimates relative to qPCR. The findings suggest WGS is a promising approach for assessing telomere length and, as the field of telomere ecology evolves, may provide added value to assaying response to biotic and abiotic environments for plants needed to accelerate plant breeding and conservation management.